India through its Economic Survey forecast its economy will grow 6% to 6.8% in the next financial year starting 1 April, down from 7% growth projected for the current year, according to the Economic Survey tabled in the Parliament. At the projected rate, growth will be the slowest in three years.
The Economic Survey was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament today. It is the flagship document of the Ministry of Finance prepared under the stewardship of the Chief Economic Advisor. The document holds key insights into India’s macroeconomic landscape and government policies and also reforms that can be ushered in.
The Economic Survey for 2022-23 has pegged India’s GDP growth for the next fiscal 2023-24 in a broad range of 6-6.8 percent. The Survey’s baseline forecast for real GDP growth is 6.5 per cent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India to be the fastest-growing major economy in FY24, retaining the forecast at 6.1% in its latest World Economic Outlook, citing “resilient” domestic demand despite a challenging external environment. India’s National Statistical Office earlier this month projected the economy to expand by 7% in 2022-23, as per the first advanced estimates.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its September 2022 Monetary Policy Report, had forecast that GDP growth in 2023-24 may be 6.5 percent. This forecast may undergo a revision when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces its interest rate decision on February 8, where the panel is expected to hike rates again.
“The survey projects a baseline GDP growth of 6.5% in real terms in FY24. The projection is broadly comparable to the estimates provided by multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the ADB and by RBI, domestically. The actual outcome for real GDP growth will probably lie in the range of 6% to 6.8%, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally,” the Survey said.
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